Tickets for the domestic release of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom on June 22nd officially went on sale yesterday, and today the first box office tracking has been released. While tracking numbers are never 100% accurate it does typically give us a good idea of what to expect. According to initial data from Deadline, Fallen Kingdom is tracking to a domestic opening of around $130-$150 Million.
While this tracking obviously is far less than the $208.8 million opening of 2015’s Jurassic World, which was an opening weekend record at the time, it would still be considered a huge opening for any blockbuster. While we await to see what Disney’s Incredibles 2 opens to on June 15th, these trackings would give it the 3rd or 4th biggest opening of the year so far behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257.7 million), Black Panther ($202.0 million) and potentially Incredibles 2.
Something we must all keep in mind when it comes to tracking is that the potential is there for it to be way off. In 2015, the initial tracking numbers for Jurassic World were predicting an opening weekend of around $100 million and when the film was released it more than doubled that number. What a franchise like Jurassic thrives on most is walk-up ticket purchases, unlike a Star Wars or Marvel movie that typically do massive pre-sales. Walk-ups can really hurt tracking predictions because that is more based on pre-sale ticket purchases. That is not to say Fallen Kingdom will do twice as much as the tracking number, but it is a variable worth watching.
It also should be noted that a potential opening weekend of $130-$150 Million should not be considered a disappointment at all even though it will be less than Jurassic World’s opening. It still has a chance to claim the 2018 Summer opening weekend crown with those numbers (if you count Avengers: Infinity War as a Spring movie since it came out in April) and be the highest grossing movie of the Summer. Fallen Kingdom would still be a success, even if the opening weekend, domestic and worldwide numbers come in under what Jurassic World did. Our early guess based on these tracking numbers is that Fallen Kingdom might do more than $400 million domestically total and about $900 million-$1.2 billion worldwide, which would be a massive box office run for any movie, including a major franchise like Jurassic.
Domestically is not the only place where Fallen Kingdom is expected to do big numbers, Gavin Feng, who covers the Chinese Box Office is reporting that the film is tracking to an opening weekend in China of $105 million over three days. That would surpass the three day opening of $67.19 million for Jurassic World back in 2015. Fallen Kingdom opens in China on June 15th.
What do you think of the initial domestic opening tracking numbers? Does this seem lower, higher or about what you expected? How close do you think the actual opening weekend numbers might be to these tracking numbers? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below and on our forums.
Source: Deadline, Gavin Feng on Twitter
